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Decelerate NOW. Slowdown ahead

By Zoe Hughes, NAREIM

Inflation, supply chain challenges and geopolitical conflicts present significant challenges for everyone, but as research heads Sabrina Unger at American Realty Advisors, Albina Reydman at Lendlease, Lee Menifee at PGIM Real Estate, and Chris Caton at Prologis discuss, one of the biggest concerns facing commercial real estate is the deceleration in demand, and the subsequent risk of repricing.

Transaction markets are already pricing in lower valuations, but that is expected to become more pronounced over the next six to 18 months, according to the researchers. As a result, the focus for real estate investment managers has to be on long-term drivers of growth or ‘change agents’ — education, demographics, sustainability and technology — with a deep focus on the needs of the tenant.

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